Once upon a time cricket had clearly defined seasons. It was played in about half a dozen countries during months that had a low probability of rain. From 1982 onwards the number of cricket playing countries expanded. It now stands at a dozen. Women’s cricket is also there.

The resulting geographic spread of men’s cricket is very good but it has a serious downside: the probability of non-random rain affecting a match has gone up because all the dry season cricket tournaments are occupied by the older cricketing countries. That’s why in Sri Lanka the main international season is during the summer monsoon! Rain is now a frequent occurrence during tournaments. Even if there was no ‘climate change’, it is to be expected that far more matches will be rained on than before because they are played outside the dry seasons.

Consequently, risk and uncertainty have both increased. Risk can be mitigated. But uncertainty, by its very nature and definition, is impossible to counter. Driving on the wrong side is risky but bad driving by a majority of the drivers is high uncertainty. There’s nothing you can do, except hope for the best. The ICC has been doing what it can to reduce match risk — Duckworth-Lewis and extended hours of play, for example. But there’s nothing it can do about playing in rainy seasons.

This will increasingly affect all participants. The worst affected are the advertisers. Even when a match is resumed after a rain interruption, viewership drops precipitously. The heightened uncertainty is bound to affect the revenues of BCCI and ICC as advertisers adjust what they are willing to pay. This will have maximum impact on the bilateral series. It’s possible to insure matches now. Matches at the 2023 World Cup were insured at about ₹80 crore each. Matches where India played were insured for ₹110 crore.

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