Cognizant impact study predicts Gen AI could inject $1 tr into US economy over 10 years

Cognizant & Oxford Economics impact study predicts 90 per cent of jobs will be disrupted in some way by Generative AI. A study by Cognizant, in partnership with Oxford Economics, has revealed that 90 per cent of jobs will be disrupted in some way by generative AI (gen AI) technology. This could boost US productivity by 1.7-3.5 per cent, and grow the country’s GDP between $477 billion and $1 trillion in annual value over the next 10 years, based on business adoption rates.

The study also found that the technology’s impact will be influenced by the rate of business adoption and how quickly individuals can adapt to new ways of working, says a Cognizant release.

“Our study aims to lift the curtain on the effects generative AI may have on our global workforce,” said Adrian Cooper, CEO at Oxford Economics. “The research findings showcase just how quickly this technology might disrupt the trajectory of the US economy, offering invaluable insights for leaders to harness its potential and adapt swiftly.”

AI adoption will skyrocket over the next decade before settling into maturity. Businesses are in the experimental phase of adoption for AI capabilities. However, the findings reveal that adoption could leap from 13 per cent to 31 per cent in just four to eight years. After the 15-year mark, the findings predict that adoption may slow but will continue to grow for at least 15 more years.

Half of all jobs are predicted to significantly change as generative AI is integrated to automate job tasks. As a result, approximately 9 per cent of the current US workforce may be displaced, with 1 per cent potentially struggling to find new employment based on historical economic shifts, the study said.

The data found that C-Suite executives – even CEOs – could see a theoretical maximum exposure score (the degree to which a job’s tasks are prone to being automated by generative AI) of more than 25 per cent, as they begin using gen AI for everything from competitive assessments to strategic decision-making.

Jobs with higher levels of knowledge work may be most affected, the study says. In the past, technology advances and automation have impacted mainly manual labour and process-centric knowledge work. However, Gen AI is poised to do the opposite, having a higher disruption on knowledge work. Additionally, jobs involving credit analysis, computer programming, web development, database administration, and graphic design already have a theoretical maximum exposure score of about 50 per cent. By 2032, as technology advances, some jobs’ exposure scores may climb to 80 per cent, the study said.

“Generative AI has already astonished us with its capabilities across industries, but the true impact of its integration in our daily business operations has just scratched the surface,” said Ravi Kumar S, Chief Executive Officer, Cognizant. “To apply the technology’s potential to amplify our productivity, we must understand its full influence on the future of work and come together to create the best opportunities for people to grow alongside it,” he said in the release.

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