Light to moderate rain accompanied with isolated thunderstorm and lightning will return to Tamil Nadu and Kerala and Mahe for three days from Friday, breaking the lull in weather following the precipitous landfall of severe cyclone Michaung. An update from India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said isolated heavy rainfall is likely over South Tamil Nadu on Saturday and Sunday and over Kerala on Sunday. 

The warning was issued in view of an apparent burst of easterlies across the southern parts of the Bay of Bengal targeting the southern parts of Peninsular India as well as Sri Lanka to further South and South-East even as the North-East monsoon enters the final leg. A notification issued by the Sri Lanka Meteorological Department is instructive in that it expects showery weather conditions to expected to temporarily enhance over most places of the island for the next few days starting Thursday. 

Showers for Sri Lanka

The Sri Lankan Met said showers will occur over the Eastern and Uva provinces and in Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Matale and Polonnaruwa districts. Several spells may break out in Vavuniya, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Anuradhapura and Hambantota districts. Showers or thundershowers will occur at several places in other areas of the island after 1 pm. Heavy showers above 10 cm are likely at some places in Eastern, Uva, Western, Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Nuwara-Eliya, Galle and Matara districts.

Meanwhile, an extended outlook issued by the IMD for the week beginning Thursday said while no active western disturbance is expected to affect North-West India, light to moderate to scattered to fairly widespread rain is likely over the South Peninsula during the week. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Tamil Nadu and Kerala during some days of the week. Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over the South Peninsula and below normal over the remaining regions of India. 

Global model outlook

Outlook by a few international models suggested the North-East monsoon over the South Peninsula may draw to a close in a whimper by the month-end, coinciding with the end of the year as well. According to them, the New Year (2024) may throw in a surprise by sustaining and later boosting the end-season showers into January with a large region of above-normal showers alternating between the central parts of North-West India and later East India and adjoining Peninsular and South India. 

Dense fog arrives

Over the northern parts of the country, winter conditions are now sought to be supplanted by the fog to dense fog conditions coming into their own ahead of the peak season beginning mid-December. Minimum (night) temperatures are in the range of 6-10°C over most parts of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, North Rajasthan and North Uttar Pradesh. Western disturbances with their moisture engine upfront warms up the air while leaving a trail of Arctic cold in the rear, amplifying local weather.

Western disturbance

On Wednesday, the IMD said a western disturbance had moved away from North-West India and was located across a line linking Patna looking down South towards Rourkela and Bhubaneshwar. A weather-setting cyclonic circulation lay over Bangladesh in lower levels. The combo was expected to trigger light to moderate rain accompanied with isolated thunderstorm and lightning over the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya and hailstorm at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh on Wednesday. 

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